Method

Observations versus inference

An observation is a claim about the world at a time and place, with a source, method and timestamp. Derived and inferred statements are stored separately and labelled. Generative text cannot mutate canonical observations. We never use “safe” as a label for air, water or ecosystems.

Provenance

Every significant claim should expand to organisation, product, observation time, ingest time, method, URL, licence, transformation, model if derived, confidence, and previous version. Language is fixed: Observed, Derived, Inferred, Hypothesised, Validated.

Intelligence Objects

An Intelligence Object is a versioned, evidence-linked statement about a system. Updates are material-change-driven, not timer-driven. Cheap observation jobs run frequently; deeper updates run when hotspot density, wind, air quality, forecasts or official statements change enough to matter.

Uncertainty and confidence

Confidence is not a decorative percentage. It is a weighted combination of source authority, source agreement, recency, spatial and temporal resolution, model agreement, methodological quality, analogue strength, and unresolved contradiction. Confidence is visually separated from event status so a fast scan cannot conflate “how intense” with “how sure”.

TTRP+ systems reasoning

We use an adapted Trigger → Transfer → Reserve → Pulse logic, extended with State, Threshold, Feedback, Response, Outcome, Learning and New State. This is not a claim to reproduce or replace Tongway’s original scientific framework. Roles are contextual: the same fire can be a pulse in a terrestrial system and a trigger for an atmospheric one.

Coupled human–natural systems

Humans are not outside the system. Inquiries persist as Investigation Objects. Attention Objects flag patterns for human review. The system does not make autonomous high-stakes decisions.

OneNetwork interoperability

Sentinels observe systems. OneNetwork observes relationships between systems. Haze Sentinel publishes Observations, Intelligence Objects, relationships, health and a compute ledger. Publication queues locally if OneNetwork is unavailable.

Provisional thresholds

• Hotspot step-change: count ≥ 200 in AOI and >25% versus previous ingest.
• Official NEA 24-hour PSI ≥ 101 in any Singapore region (health-advisory index).
• Official NEA 1-hour PM2.5 ≥ 56 µg/m³ in at least three Singapore regions (elevated; not itself the health advisory).
• Modelled PM2.5 watch: ≥ 55.5 µg/m³ at a receptor station (context only; not official PSI).
• Transport watch: that PM or hotspot step-change coinciding with a 160–280° 10 m wind at Singapore.