What happens next?
Candidate pathways, not deterministic prophecy. Each edge carries evidence state, confidence, time horizon and uncertainty.
Droughtwatch
confidence unknown · horizon seasonal
Climate-state adapter not connected.
Peat / vegetation fireobserved as thermal anomaly
confidence moderate when FIRMS is live · horizon hours
Anomaly ≠ peat fire.
Smoke productionhypothesised
confidence low · horizon hours
Not a smoke-emission inventory.
Atmospheric transportplausibility check
confidence low–moderate · horizon hours–day
10 m wind, not a trajectory model.
Population exposuremodelled PM context
confidence low until official AQ connected · horizon hours–day
Not official PSI.
Depositionnot asserted
confidence unknown · horizon days–weeks
No flux estimate. Handoff does not invent one.
Catchment / coastal transferhandoff live
confidence low–moderate for the watch · horizon event + rainfall
Marine Sentinel consumes /api/v1/handoffs/marine. Deposition remains hypothesised.
Ecological responsewatch
confidence unknown · horizon season–years
Biota Sentinel handoff hypothesised.